Yuanzu Shares (603886): Pre-receipt Steady Increase and Price Increase to Promote 19-Year Performance Acceleration
Key points of investment: The first net increase in stores in 18 years, the pre-collection at the end of the year highlights the high demand.
In the initial period, there were 40 net new stores, with a total of 631 stores, +6 per year.
8%, while single store revenue is +3 for ten years.
2%, solid performance.
In 武汉夜生活网 terms of categories, mooncake / cake / cake / fruit income plus +12 respectively.
5% / 12.
7% / 4.
0% / 8.
1%, the ton price is +10 per year.
8% / + 13.
8%, mainly due to a series of effects during the store promotion process.
The company’s advance payment at the end of 18 years +21.
7% to 6.
09 trillion, mainly due to the increase in sales of union welfare card coupons, showing a high degree of prosperity.
Affected by cost, gross profit was skipped, and a new round of price increase cycle was launched in 19 years. In 2018, Yuanzu ‘s overall gross profit margin decreased by -1.
52ppt to 64.
8%, of which moon cake / cake / cakes / fruit gross margin were -3 in a row.
8ppt / -2.
1ppt / -0.
9ppt / + 7.
8ppt, the average direct material cost per mooncake / cake is +26 per year.
3% / 12.
5%, mainly due to the use of ice cream cold packs and the rise in packaging material prices.
From April 1, 2019, Yuanzu started a new price increase cycle for related cakes and fruit gift boxes. The price increase range is about 10-25%. Assuming the same sales volume, it is expected to contribute more than 4% of revenue growth.
There is room for future sales expenses to decrease. The growth rate of Yuanzu ‘s overall sales expense rate in 2018 is +0.
52ppt, mainly due to the increase in labor costs and advertising costs.
The company’s sales staff increased by 442 in 18 years. If the cost of sales personnel is calculated based on this caliber, it will be about -2% in 17 years, and the single store rent will also total -0.
8%, it is expected that the cost will be lowered after sinking to third- and fourth-tier cities and re-planning.
And by expanding the scope of delivery, the transportation cost rate has increased slightly.
We believe that during the continuous expansion and sinking of Yuanzu, the unit rental cost is expected to decrease while the cost-effectiveness of employees is prominent, and there is room for the company’s future sales expense ratio to continue to decline.
Earnings forecasts and estimates We expect the company’s revenue for 2019-2021 to be 22 respectively.
2 ppm / 24.
4 ppm / 26.
6 trillion, each year +13.
2% / 10.
2% / 8.8%, net profit is 3 respectively.
0 ppm / 3.
56 ‰ / 4.
US $ 0.6 billion, at least + 25% / 17% / 14% respectively. Currently, the total corresponding 19/20 PE is 18X / 16X. Maintaining the “Buy” rating risk indicates that mooncake demand is affected by policies / increase in store rent and labor costsBeyond expectations / food safety risks.