Zhongshun Jierou (002511) commented in the 2019 Interim Report: profit is expected to increase during the year

Zhongshun Jierou (002511) commented in the 2019 Interim Report: profit is expected to increase during the year

Brief evaluation of performance In the first half of 2019, the company achieved revenue / net profit attributable to its mothers31.

72 ppm / 2.

75 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

67% / 37.

59%, fully diluted EPS0.

22 yuan, exceeding market expectations.

Business analysis is expected to continue to benefit from significant price reductions in raw materials, and earnings in the third quarter may increase again.

In the first half of the year, the company continued to optimize its product structure and increase the proportion of high-end, high-margin products and non-rolled paper categories.

At the same 杭州夜网 time, the price of wood pulp in Q1 this year fell by 17.

With an impact of 47%, the preliminary comprehensive gross profit margin reached 36.

69%, the same ring increase of 0.

2pct and 2.

68 points.

Q2 wood pulp prices continued to fall, and international pulp prices fell 28.

9%.

We expect the Q3 company’s gross profit margin level is expected to increase again.

At the same time, the company’s inventory turnover days in the first half of the year were 78.

27 days, 9 shorter than the same period last year.

In 26 days, while operating efficiency improved, it also showed that the downstream demand of the company’s products was relatively strong.

Launched sanitary napkin brand to improve product layout.

In June of this year, the company’s personal care brand “Dorei Mi” was launched, and its products are mainly targeted at young women.

At the same time, the top layer of the “Dorei Honey” sanitary napkins is made of 100% imported cotton, which focuses on core selling points such as “breathable and super-absorbent”, positioning products in the high-end market with differences.

We believe that the company cuts horizontally into a field of care to improve the product line layout and create new growth points for future performance.

In fact, the company, as a domestic leader in high-end household paper, has a high brand awareness of copyright, and it must have a competitive advantage to enter the field of personal care products.

Finally, a protective product belongs to the high-margin industry, and subsequently the company’s profitability has increased with the volume of sanitary napkin products.

Promote the bamboo pulp and paper integration project, and it is expected to realize a dual-brand operation model in the future.

On July 10, the company announced that it was proposed to be 40.

USD 8.7 billion to build 30 bamboo pulp and paper integration projects in Quxian, Dazhou, Sichuan.

Among them, the construction scale of bamboo pulp is 31.

8 announced / year (planned investment 17.

800 million US dollars, the construction scale of tissue paper is 30 initial / year (planned investment 21).

100000000).

The company has a long-term investment agreement with the Dazhou Municipal Government.

With this project investment, the company gradually completed the upstream industrial chain extension and realized the integrated business model of bamboo pulp and paper.

At the same time, “Sun” will also be used as the project’s tissue paper brand to achieve comprehensive coverage of high-end and low-end consumers.

In the future, the company will form a “sun + Jierou” dual-brand operation model, and at the same time carry out project investment and optimize intermediate production transfers to drive overall operating efficiency.

Profit forecast and investment advice The company continues to optimize its product structure to maintain stable profitability and improve profitability of new product promotion.

We predict that the company’s EPS will be 0 after full dilution in 2019-2021.39/0.

47/0.

58 yuan (three years CAGR23.

06%), corresponding to PE of 34/28/23 times, maintaining the company’s “Buy” rating.

Risk factors: the risk of rising exchange rates and pulp prices; the new product promotion is less than expected risk; the production capacity is less than the risk; the company had 1,467 in 北京夜生活网 May and June this year.

820,000 shares and 175.

770,000 shares lifted, risk of reduction