Chenguang Stationery (603899) 2019Q3 Review: Third Quarter Report Exceeds Expectations Traditional Business Remarkably Reveals
The core opinion was more than expected in the third quarter, and the leading part continued to verify.
In 2019Q1-3, the company realized operating income of 79.
4.7 billion yuan, +29 per year.
78%; net profit attributable to mother 8.
20,000 yuan, +28 a year.
36%; net profit after deduction to mother 7.
610,000 yuan, ten years +32.
By quarter, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 achieved operating income of 23 respectively.
09 million yuan, + 28% / +27 for each year.
57% / + 33.
02%; net profit attributable to mother 2.
31 trillion, +26 each year.
42% / + 25.
02% / + 32.
22%; net profit after deduction to mother 2.
33 trillion, +29 each year.
54% / + 20.
78% / + 43.
We analyze, excluding Q & A consolidation factors, income endogenous growth rate of Q3 is about 28% -29%, and Q1-3 endogenous growth rate is 26% -27%.
In the third quarter, the company’s revenue and profit side exceeded expectations.
Traditional business universities have performed well in floods, and Klip has grown steadily.
Traditional business: We estimate that the traditional business (excluding Ashuo) ‘s Q3 revenue will be about US $ 1.7-1.8 billion, an annual increase of 20-21%; Q1-3 revenue will be about US $ 4.6-4.7 billion, an increase of about 14%.
The growth rate of traditional business temporarily lags behind in Q2, and Q3 rebounds rapidly. Terminal mobile sales performed well during the university flood, and the company’s barriers to brand and channels were verified.
Colip: Q3 income 9.
8.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37%; Q1-3 income 24.
800 million, an increase of 48% in ten years.
The main reasons for the slight shift in the growth rate of Colip in the single quarter are as follows: 1) The natural growth of the conversion base growth rate shifts, but under the effect of scale, Colip’s profitability will continue to increase, and the growth rate at the profit side is higher than the growth rate at the income side.
2) In the third quarter, due to the impact of Sino-US trade frictions, some customers’ office collection and procurement policies were adjusted, which delayed the delivery of Q3 orders.
Collip expects revenue to grow by more than 50%, with 苏州桑拿网 revenue expected to reach $ 4 billion.
Living hall business: The company’s Q1-3 living hall business realized income 4.200 million, an increase of 91% previously, of which the income of Jiumu Sundry Club3.
07 ppm; Q3 single quarter revenue 1.
900 million, an increase of 88% in ten years.
The company accurately grasps the development trend of the cultural and creative industry. By using explosives such as handbooks and blind boxes, the stores of Jiumu Sunshine Co., Ltd. have developed smoothly and expanded faster than expected.
As of now, the number of Jiumu stores has reached 225, and the plan of gradually adding to 100 stores has been completed in advance. The life museum business is expected to achieve a breakeven in advance within the year.
The product structure has been optimized, and the proportion of 深圳养生会所 high-margin fine arts and culture and children’s art has increased.
2019Q1-3 company’s gross profit margin for ten years +1.
33pcpts to 26.
79%; net interest margin is -0.
07pcpts to 10.
The cost rate during the period +0 per second.
39 to 14.
Among them, the selling expense ratio is -0.
34pcpts to 8.
82%; management expense ratio (including R & D expense ratio1.
35%) ± 0.
72 to 5.
81%; financial expense rate for ten years +0.
02pcpts to -0.
Q3 single season gross margin +2 per second.
49 to 27.
71%; short-term net interest rate -0.
07pcpts to 10.
87%; period rate growth rate +0.
76pcpts to 13.
In terms of products, writing instruments, the gross profit margin of student stationery increased by about 2 points, and office stationery increased by about 1 point.
The reasons for the significant increase in gross profit margin were: 1) reduction and reduction; 2) high-margin boutique cultural and creative products, children’s art products, and living museum business developed rapidly, and the proportion increased.
The net interest rate was basically the same as the same period of last year. Considering the increase in the proportion of Colibri’s business (net interest rate of about 2-3%), the net interest rate of traditional businesses increased significantly compared with the same period of last year.
The cash flow performance was outstanding and operating efficiency was significantly improved.
2019Q1-3 The company realized operating cash flow6.
7.8 billion yuan, +37 per year.
7%; operating cash flow / net operating income ratio 72.
87%; sales cash flow / operating income -1 per year.
03 tablets to 107.
83%.Net operating cycle 19.
6 days, 15 drops per year.
23 days; of which, inventory turnover days were 53.
45 days; 1 year up.
25 days; accounts receivable turnover days 35.
73 days; one year up 3.
34 days; account turnover days 69.
59 days; up 19 per year.
The company’s cash flow performance is outstanding, Colip’s business has a restructuring right for suppliers, and the reconciliation account period offsets the impact of accounts receivable on the company’s cash flow and turnover efficiency.
Investment suggestion: The company’s traditional business development is stable and the leading enterprises are constantly stable; emerging business development provides rapid flexibility, and the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is predicted to be 1.
63 yuan, corresponding to PE is 44, 34, 27X, maintain “recommended” investment rating.
Risk warning: franchise stores are opening less quickly than expected, emerging businesses continue to deteriorate, and industry competition is intensifying.